1.1 Current Status of an Aging Society with Fewer Children and Challenges for Science and Technology

1.1.2 Issues to be Addressed by Japan and the Role of Science and Technology

Summary

 The rapid progression of an aging society with fewer children will have a large and far-reaching impact on Japan's society, including concerns about insufficient personnel to support a science and technology-based nation.
 Measures to change the trend in fewer children and to mitigate the rapid changes in the population structure are certainly required, but there is also a need to develop new social systems to deal with the unavoidable decline in population and aging society with fewer children.
 It is anticipated that science and technology will contribute to resolving the issues of building a spiritually wealthy society, vitalizing the economy and creating an environment whereby individuals can participate in society regardless of age or sex while achieving a healthy balance in their daily lives, as the demographic structure changes.
 Furthermore, as the connection between S＆T and society deepens, there is a need to foster the interest, empathy and confidence of the public in science and technology, establish comprehensive human resources development policies to improve quality of and secure the personnel working in science and technology, and develop an environment that allows a wide variety of people to actively participate.

1.1.2.1 Effects of the Progression of Aging Society with Fewer Children

● Impact on Society

 As shown in section 1, over the long term the population of the country is projected to decline, along with the rapid advancement of an aging society with fewer children. This kind of structural population change is expected to have large and wide-ranging effects on society.
 First, the percentage of the elderly population is increasing. In 2004 there were 3.4 people in the number of working-age population （15-64 years） for every elderly person. This is projected to drop to 1.5 by 2050, raising concerns about the increasing burden of social security from pensions as well as health care and nursing care. In addition, the working population （persons aged 15 years or over who intend to work） has been declining since 1998, with decreases projected to continue in the future. Furthermore, it is projected that in 2007 the baby boomer generation （consisting of people born between 1947 and 1949） will start to retire from the labor market as they approach the age of 60. This is the generate on that has supported the country's economic growth and had a profound impact on all facets of society. Looking at the society of the country in terms of the population structure, it is predicted that there will be a complete change from the structure of the past （Figure 1-1-4）.
 With regard to the stock of social capital, including roads, airports and sea ports, there is a view that the per capita social capital stock will increase as the population decreases, and that this will create a surplus. However, since much of the social capital stock formed during the period of high economic growth will require updating and renewal in the next dozen or so years, there is expected to be a large increase in maintenance and new investment costs.
 Turning our attention to local communities, although in the past the progressive aging of society was mainly apparent in rural areas, it is projected that the aging of society will soon be apparent in urban areas as well. The maintenance of the vitality of local communities in rural areas in which the aging of the population has progressed is already an issue. It is likely that there will be changes in urban functions and the connection between the elderly and local areas as elderly people in cities and the surrounding suburbs retire and return to their home towns.

● Impact on Science and technology

 There is fear that changes in the composition of the population could have a large impact on the ability to secure the personnel that support a science and technology-based nation. As the population ages, the percentage of middle-aged and elderly people working in specialized/technical jobs is increasing, a trend that is expected to continue in the future. In addition, the Year 2007 Problem as above is expected to have a large impact on shortage of engineers and skilled workers, particularly in the fields of science and technology, and on the passing on of techniques and skills.
 Even though it is crucial to ensure that the younger generation with vitality and creativity enter the fields of science and technology in order to strengthen and maintain the science and technology abilities of Japan, if there continues to be a decline in the interest of the younger generation in science and technology as the decrease in the number of children progresses, there is concerns about the predicted both the quality and the quantity of science and technology personnel will be inadequate.

Figure 1-1-4 Changes in Japan's population structure by age

Source：
 For 2000, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications' "Population Census." For 2050, the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research's "Population Projections for Japan （January 2002 Projections）".

1.1.2.2   Dealing with Aging Society with Fewer Children and the Role of Science and Technology

● Measures to change the trend in fewer children

 A major factor of the population decline and aging society with fewer children that are predicted to have a wide range of effects on Japanese society, is the decline in the birth rate that has continued over a long period.
 The decline in the birth rate is the product of individual personal choice, and there are certainly those who view low birth rates and fewer children as phenomena that are common to developed nations and difficult to avoid. However, it has been suggested that the rapid decrease in the number of children in Japan has been accelerated by more people raising children alone and decreases in assistance with child care locally and from the extended family as urbanization progresses and more people live in nuclear families; increases in the costs of raising children; a working environment that makes it difficult to maintain both family life and a job; changes in attitudes about marriage and families; and socio-economic conditions making it difficult for young people to establish themselves, including the high youth unemployment rate. （Note 2）
 A continuation of such societal conditions in which it is difficult to bear and raise children will cause drastic changes to the demographic structure, making countermeasures even more difficult. This threatens to shake the very foundations for the sustainability of Japanese society.
 The government established "National Youth Development Policy" in June 2004, aiming to make a transformation to a society in which children can be raised healthily and in which it is possible to bear and raise children joyfully, in order to "reverse the trend of fewer children." In December that same year a "Support Plan for Children and Childrearing" was established as a concrete plan of action incorporating the measures described in the general policies. Focused measures are now underway, and it is important for the entire society to make continued efforts in the future.

Note 2：
 See General Policies of Measures for an Aging Society with Fewer Children （adopted by the Cabinet on June 4, 2004）

● Building new social systems

 Even if the trend in fewer children is changed and the birth rate begins to increase, some time will be required before there is a big enough effect to increase the population, so Japan cannot avoid a decline in population in the short term. Even based on the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research's optimistic projection which assumes that the total fertility rate will return to 1.63, it is projected that the population will begin to decline after reaching a peak in 2009, dropping by about 20 million people by 2050. （Note 3）
 Japan must maintain the vitality of society, achieve a society that offers an abundant life and provide a stable future in the midst of a decrease in the labor force accompanying the declining population and aging society with fewer children, as well as the decrease in the population of children and young people.
 As the global population continues to grow, the global-scale issues, such as environmental problems, food supply problems, resource and energy problems, require a shift from our mass-production, mass- consumption, mass-waste civilization of the 20th century.
 How will science and technology be involved in solving these problems?
 As a nation with few natural resources and little land, wealth has been achieved through a high level of education and the high level technical abilities of the human resources. In the future, as international competition becomes even more intense, it is necessary to continue to maintain international competitiveness and provide high value-added products and services to the world, while corresponding to the changes in the population composition, maintaining and improving the quality of life of citizens and achieving an abundance that includes spiritual and mental aspects. There is also a demand to actively contribute to global scale problems such as the environmental problems, and it is believed that the role of science and technology will continue to grow.
 The foundation that supports the progress of science and technology more than anything else is the ability of the people who are engaged in science and technology. As globalization progresses, every nation is increasing measures to secure science and technology personnel, revealing a kind of global competition for human resources. In Japan, it has been estimated that there could be a shortage of more than 1 million researchers and engineers by 2030, depending on changes in the economic growth and industrial structure. As population decline and the aging society with fewer children progresses, the measures to ensure the quality and quantity of science and technology personnel must be promoted even more strongly. Furthermore, as we enter the age of a knowledge-oriented society, and science and technology impacts every facet of daily life, it is necessary to foster the understanding, interest, empathy and confidence of the public towards science and technology.
 In a situation of a decreasing population and an aging society with fewer children, development of "Human Resources" and achievement of a "Science and Technology-based Nation" have become even more important and significant as the path that must be followed by Japan.
 As international competition intensifies, a decline in the population that is the source of the nation's vitality is a major issue. Nevertheless, there is no time to defer addressing the previously-mentioned global problems. In addition, developed nations and various countries in Asia are also expected to be facing declining populations in the near future.
 In such an era, by approaching the handling of a declining population and an aging society with fewer children as a challenging opportunity to build the future society and being the first in the world to resolve the issues, if Japan can realize new social systems to deal with population decreases and aging society with fewer children and show the world an abundant, sustainable society, this becomes an opportunity to present a model to other countries that will face the same issues in the future.
 In addition, an abundant and stable society is connected to the realization of a society in which people have hopes for the future and the desire to raise children, so this is likely to contribute to reversing the trend of fewer children as well. A change in society involves a variety of elements, such as the various social systems and attitudes of people, and science and technology is only one such element, but nevertheless an important one. In the following section, the challenges to be faced in achieving a wealthy and stable society amidst the population decline and advent of an aging society with fewer children are divided into three areas: dealing with changes in the population structure, revitalizing the economy, and building a society that provides spiritual well-being. Discussions are made on the role that science and technology should play in tackling these respective challenges and on the issue of fostering peoples' understanding of and interest in science and technology as well as on the development and securing of the human resources which would constitute the basic foundation for dealing with all of the above challenges.

Note 3：
 For the high projection in the 2002 projections of the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, based on the rate of never-married people in the 10 prefectures with the highest percentage of unmarried people, it is assumed that the total fertility rate will immediately rebound from the 2000 value of 1.36 and reach a level of 1.63 in 2049

● Science and technology to deal with changes in the population composition

 In a society with a declining the working population, it is necessary to achieve a society in which it is easy for women and the elderly to work, to increase the rate of participation of these groups in the labor force, which has conventionally been low, and to increase the abilities of each individual, in order to ensure the necessary quantity and quality of the work force.
 Science and technology are expected to play a major role in realizing a society in which the elderly can be healthy and active. In other words, science and technology are expected to make major contributions to increasing peoples' "healthy lifespan," that is, to enable health to be maintained throughout peoples' lives through the prevention, diagnosis and development of treatments based on a new understanding of various diseases.
 Progress in technology, such as the development of robotic technology to assist the elderly with physical functions, is also needed to reduce the burden of nursing care and assist in the independence of the elderly.
 Furthermore, it is important to make it easier to combine work and raising children, and to fully utilize the talents of each individual, so it is necessary to further diversify work practices. Besides the traditional pattern of employment, part-time work, telecommuting and an entrepreneurial culture should be promoted. There is a need to realize a society that allows the choice of a variety of work styles to match each individual's personal circumstances and family activities, including women and the elderly. By achieving this, it will be possible for more people to participate in society with enthusiasm while maintaining a balance between work and family life. It is anticipated that this will be a society in which everyone works and supports each other, regardless of sex or age. To achieve such a society, effort is likely to be made in areas such as the development of an environment in which it is easy to work using IT （information technology） and robot technology, as well as improved efficiency for housework using a variety of home electric and electronic products. In addition, in the midst of a drastically-changing society, in order to maintain and improve the required job skills, it is anticipated that learning assistance using IT will play a significant role in securing the opportunities to study and develop job skills throughout one's life.
 It is not appropriate to simply bring in foreign labor to deal with an insufficient number of workers. Furthermore, the practice of bringing in unskilled foreign labor requires careful consideration of all the issues, including the effect on the domestic labor market and the social costs. Nevertheless, to vitalize our nation's economy and society and to advance internationalization, it is important to actively recruit foreign labor in specialized and technology fields. Specifically, for the science and technology field, in the midst of amidst intensifying international competition for human resources there is a need to develop the research environments and recruiting systems that make it possible to attract a large number of talented personnel to come and be active in the research community in Japan, without regard to nationality.
 On the other hand, in a society with fewer children, raising each child to be healthy and able to participate independently in society becomes an issue of even greater importance. This is also related to the development of the conditions which facility ate the bearing and rearing of the next generation, by strengthening the economic foundation and encouraging the younger generation to become in- dependent in society. Research in pediatric care is being promoted with the goal to improve the health of children, and the results of brain science research are expected to contribute to resolving questions related to learning and achieve-ment in children.
 With regard to social capital, technology development aims to adopt universal designs for the purpose of encouraging the participation of the elderly in society and making devices easy to use even when bringing up children, as well as reducing the maintenance and management burden.
 Science and technology also expected to provide answers to the needs of society and resolve social problems, including tackling global environmental issues and building a safe and secure society. Science and technology is expected to make significant contributions to issues that threaten the security of society, such as the spread of contagious diseases across national boundaries like avian influenza, terrorism, and large-scale natural disasters. Furthermore, if there are failures to deal with global-scale environmental problems, there is a danger that this will lead to enormous problems that threaten the continued stability of human society.
 It cannot be denied that the global problems we are now facing are associated with the development of science and technology and the rapid expansion of human activity that has followed. Nevertheless, science and technology will be crucial for solving these problems in the future. In addition to improvements in observation and data analysis technology to properly understand the issues, it is essential to continue with a variety of technology development activities to resolve the problems. 

● Science and technology to vitalize the economy

 As population decline and the aging of society with fewer children progresses there is a need to continue to increase productivity in order to mainta in economic vitality and achieve stable economic growth.
 In addition, the economy is becoming more globalized and many countries in Asia are developing rapidly, so international competition is expected to become even more intense in the future. Under these circumstances, it is crucial for there to be internationally-competitive businesses to drive Japan's economy. Therefore, there is a need for measures to deal with the operational aspects of business, such as developing new markets to adapt to changes in the population structure, providing high-value-added goods and services, and preparing the capital that is appropriate for a society with a declining population, as well as improvements in productivity and development of new products through technology development. Science and technology will play a central role in improving productiveity and strengthening competitiveness, and it is necessary to further promote science and technology. It is important to strive to achieve sustainable economic development through the development of social systems that closely link the results of science and technology with innovation （the creation of new social and economic value by combining scientific and technical discoveries with insight and intuition）.

● Science and technology to contribute to the building of a spiritually wealthy society

 During the long life of the people due to the increase in the average lifespan, it has become possible for each individual to enjoy wealthy life actively participating not only in work, but also in hobbies, learning and local activities （Figure 1-1-5）.

Figure 1-1-5 Daily activity times per week by age group

Notes 1：
 The "Free time to rest, etc." is the total time spent for "television, radio, newspapers, magazines" and "rest/relaxation."
Notes 2：
 The "active free time" is the total time spent for "study/research," "hobbies/pastimes," "sports" and "volunteer activities/ social participation activities."
Source：
 Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication "2001 Survey on Time Use and Leisure Activities"

 There is likely to be further progress in the trend of greater focus on spiritual wealth rather than material wealth, and greater interest in cultural activities, sports and lifelong learning. While these fields are related to the mental feelings and attitudes of each individual, spiritual wealth is often not compliant with the pursuit of convenience and efficiency, so there is a need for science and technology to contribute to not only material wealth, but also to achieving spiritual wealth. For example, in the field of media arts there has been devel-opment in a wide variety of art expression activities using new methods of expression resulting from the advancement in computer technology. In addition, science and technology can be used for the preservation, restoration and utilization of the cultural heritage items that are the shared assets of humanity, making it possible for more people to have direct contact with cultural assets, and to obtain information on cultural assets and traditional arts from far away, using digital archives, etc.
 Furthermore, basic research conducted based on free imagination satisfies intellectual curiosity and leads to new knowledge for humanity. The development of science and technology is making progress in fields unknown to mankind in the past, such as space, deep oceans and the earth's core, and contributing to new understanding in fields such as anthropology and history. There are also many examples of the results of basic research becoming the basis for a wide range of applications many years later, and contributing to new industries and improving daily life.

● Science and technology for people and the supporting personnel

 The connections between S＆T and society are becoming closer, and the influence of science and technology now extends into every corner of human activity. However, in recent years the interest of the public in science and technology, particularly among the young, has been tending to drop. In order for science and technology to contribute to resolving the social issues as expected by people, and also de- al with the problem of the aging society with fewer children in the future through the creation of new intellectual and cultural value, it is necessary for people to have an interest in and understanding of science and technology. Therefore, for the promotion of science and technology there is a need to pro- mote the empathy and confidence of citizens from the viewpoint of science and technology for society, and science and technology partnering with the people.
 Furthermore, it is important that each individual citizen has the basic knowledge and skills regarding science and technology （science and technology literacy） in order to sufficiently appreciate the results of science and technology, have an interest in the function of science and technology in society, and be able to make related independent judgments.
 To achieve this it is necessary to make efforts to foster a broad understanding of and interest in science and technology among citizens, from children to adults, by taking measures to allow researchers to learn the needs of the people through dialogue between researchers and the public, as seen in the science cafe sessions held nationwide, and expanding peoples' opportunities to touch, experience and learn about science and technology through measures like increasing and improving museums and exhibitions.
 It is extremely regrettable that cases of misconduct by researchers/engineers have damaged the reputation of science and technology development activities in society. With regard to this problem research institutes and national agencies have started taking measures based on the self-regulation of researchers and scientists, and such efforts are also being sought from universities and scientific organizations.
 The foundation of science and technology development, more than anything, is the people. As society continues to age and the number of children declines, there is a need to prepare an environment that allows a wide variety of people to actively participate in society, while securing and improving the quality of the personnel working in science and technology. For this reason, it is necessary to proceed with measures to increase interest in science and technology among children from the elementary and lower secondary stages of education, and to provide means to expand the individuality and abilities of talented children. In addition, there must be comprehensive measures to develop the required human resources, including an increase and improvement of the universities and graduate schools responsible for sending science and technology graduates into society, and continuing to develop the human resources to meet the needs of society. In addition, it is also necessary to ensure a supply of talented personnel even amidst the intense international competition for workers, by develop- ping an environment that allows a wide variety of people to actively participate, including the young, women and the elderly, and by building a research environment that is attractive to talented researchers from abroad, as well as the acceptance systems, including support for daily life.
 With the widespread support of the public for science and technology, research activity by a variety of talented researchers, and the endeavors of a variety of science and technology-related personel returning the research results to society, new knowledge will be created, and science and technology will develop and contribute to resolving various problems facing the nation. There is a need for even greater efforts toward building a science and technology-creating nation and the human resources that are the basis for this.
 In Chapter 2 there is a section with detailed explanations for each of the items above regarding the role of science and technology for the development of a new society.